Every week someone calls us with the same question and the same knot in their stomach: the heat pump is down, a technician quoted a number, and now they have to decide whether to spend it. Here's the framework we actually use on estimates — the same one we'd give a neighbor over the fence, including the times we talk people out of buying a new system.
The short version
Four inputs decide this, in order: how old the system is, which part failed, what refrigerant it runs, and what the repair costs as a percentage of replacement. Everything else — brand, how loud the noise is, what the internet says — is noise.
For reference, here are the real ranges in our service area. Heat pump repair and replacement is the bulk of what we do, so these numbers come from our own price book, not a national average.
| Job | Standard market | Affluent | Luxury |
|---|---|---|---|
| JobHeat pump repair | Standard market$150 – $1,500 | Affluent$175 – $1,800 | Luxury$200 – $2,000 |
| JobHeat pump replacement | Standard market$10,000 – $16,000 | Affluent$11,500 – $19,200 | Luxury$12,500 – $21,600 |
| JobNew ducted heat pump install | Standard market$12,000 – $18,000 | Affluent$13,800 – $21,600 | Luxury$15,000 – $24,300 |
A repair almost always costs less today. The question is whether it costs less over the next five years.
Input 1: Age
A well-maintained heat pump in Puget Sound typically runs 15 to 20 years. Our climate is genuinely kind to this equipment — winters here rarely drop below 25°F, and the cooling season is short, so the compressor never lives the hard life it lives in Phoenix or Minneapolis.
Under 10 years old — repair
At this age you are nowhere near the end of the machine's life. Fix it. A capacitor, contactor, sensor, or defrost board is a routine repair at the low end of the range, and you get another decade out of a system you already paid for. Anyone quoting you a full replacement on an 8-year-old heat pump for a single component failure is selling, not diagnosing.
10 to 14 years old — it depends on the part
This is the gray zone where the honest answer requires actual information. A cheap electrical part? Repair it. A compressor, a reversing valve, or a leaking indoor coil? Now you're spending four figures on a system with maybe five years left, and replacement starts to make sense.
15 years and up — lean replace
Past 15, you're not deciding whether to fix one thing. You're deciding whether to start funding repairs on an aging machine one part at a time. We've seen homeowners spend $2,500 across three visits in eighteen months and then buy the new system anyway. That's the outcome to avoid.
Input 2: What actually broke
Not all failures are equal. Some are a bad afternoon; some are the machine telling you it's done.
| Failure | What it means | Typical cost position |
|---|---|---|
| FailureCapacitor, contactor, relay | What it meansWear item, normal at any age | Typical cost positionLow end of the repair range |
| FailureDefrost board or sensor | What it meansCommon Puget Sound failure, causes icing | Typical cost positionLow to middle |
| FailureFan motor (indoor or outdoor) | What it meansReal repair, worth doing on a younger unit | Typical cost positionMiddle |
| FailureRefrigerant leak | What it meansDepends entirely on where the leak is | Typical cost positionMiddle to top |
| FailureIndoor or outdoor coil | What it meansExpensive part, often plus refrigerant | Typical cost positionTop of range |
| FailureReversing valve | What it meansHeat-pump-specific, labor heavy | Typical cost positionTop of range |
| FailureCompressor | What it meansThe heart of the system | Typical cost positionTop of range or beyond |
If you're still in the diagnosing stage, our walkthrough of why a heat pump stops heating covers the free checks worth doing before anyone charges you a diagnostic fee. Thermostat set to HEAT instead of EM HEAT, a breaker, and a filthy filter account for more service calls than people expect.
Input 3: Refrigerant — the R-22 cliff
If your system was installed before roughly 2010, it may run R-22. That refrigerant is phased out. It still exists, but it is costly, and topping off an R-22 system is pouring money into a machine that will leak again.
So the rule tightens: any repair on an R-22 system that involves the refrigerant circuit pushes us toward replacement. Not because we want the bigger job — because the second leak call is coming, and you'll be making this same decision again with less money in your pocket.
Input 4: The percentage test
Here's the arithmetic, run against the real ranges above rather than a made-up national number.
- Repair cost under 30% of replacement? Repair, at almost any age.
- Repair cost 30–50% of replacement, system under 12 years? Repair, usually.
- Repair cost over 50% of replacement? Replace.
- System over 15 years old? Drop the threshold to about a third.
One more factor most contractors skip: what a repair does not buy you. It doesn't buy you a warranty on the rest of the machine. It doesn't buy you a quieter, two-stage or variable-speed system that runs long and low instead of slamming on and off. And it doesn't buy you the efficiency of current equipment. Every Varsity installation carries a 10-year parts and 10-year labor warranty — that's part of what you're weighing on the replacement side of the ledger, and it's worth real money.
Want a number before anyone comes out? Use the instant estimate tool or call (253) 785-4622.
Where rebates fit — and where they don't
This is the part that gets oversold, so let's be precise.
Puget Sound Energy offers up to $4,400 toward a qualifying heat pump when it replaces an existing electric or fossil-fuel system. The exact amount depends on what you're replacing and what you install. Programs change, so we confirm your current eligibility and handle the paperwork.
Two honest caveats:
- Heat pump to heat pump usually isn't the headline rebate. The big money is for conversions — electric resistance baseboards or a fossil-fuel furnace moving to a heat pump. If you already have a heat pump, expect less. Our PSE rebate breakdown lays out which case earns what.
- Rebates follow your meter, not your county. Plenty of homes we serve are on Tacoma Power, Seattle City Light, Peninsula Light or a small mutual utility instead of PSE, each with its own programs. We check the name on your power bill before quoting any incentive.
And one thing to ignore entirely: the federal 25C tax credit ended December 31, 2025. No 2026 installation qualifies for it, no matter who tells you otherwise. Separately, from April 2, 2026, PSE rebates require a PSE-certified installer — Varsity is a PSE Certified Contractor, so that box is checked.
When we tell people to repair
We do it often, and it's on our reviews. A working system you already own is the cheapest comfort available. If your heat pump is under a decade old, the failed part is electrical, and the ductwork and airflow check out, we'll fix it and leave. Same if you're selling in six months and just need the system running and disclosed honestly.
When we tell people to replace
- 15+ years old with a four-figure repair on the table
- R-22 refrigerant plus a leak
- Compressor or reversing valve failure on a system past 12 years
- Second or third significant repair in two years
- The system was never sized right and has never kept the house comfortable — a repair won't fix a load-calculation problem
That last one matters more than people think. If the original installer guessed at the size, replacement is the only real fix, and it starts with an actual Manual J load calculation. Our Washington heat pump cost guide breaks down every line item that moves the final number.
How to decide in one visit
Ask any contractor for four things in writing: the age of the unit, the specific failed component, the refrigerant type, and the repair price. With those four facts you can run the math yourself in about two minutes. If they can't or won't give you all four, that tells you something too.
We present repair and replacement side by side with Good, Better and Best equipment tiers, and we don't manufacture urgency to close it. Most installs are done in one day. Request an estimate or call (253) 785-4622, Monday through Friday, 8 to 6 — you'll get an owner-operated crew from Federal Way, not a call center.