Thurston County gets a furnace conversation earlier in the fall than the rest of Puget Sound, and there is a reason for that. Washington's energy code lists Olympia, Lacey and Tumwater at a 17°F winter design temperature — twelve degrees colder than Tacoma, and the coldest number in Varsity's entire 45-city service area. The furnace here works more hours per winter than the same furnace in Federal Way or Fircrest. It also wears out a little sooner.
So when it quits, you want a real number fast, not a vague "it depends." Here it is.
The short answer: 2026 installed prices
Olympia, Lacey and Tumwater all price as standard Puget Sound markets. These are installed costs — equipment, labor, materials, permit, inspection and haul-away of the old unit.
| What you're buying | Installed cost |
|---|---|
| What you're buyingStandard-efficiency gas furnace (80-92% AFUE) | Installed cost$4,000 – $8,000 |
| What you're buyingHigh-efficiency gas furnace (96-98% AFUE), larger homes, harder installs | Installed cost$5,000 – $10,000 |
| What you're buyingFurnace and central AC replaced together | Installed cost$10,000 – $16,000 |
| What you're buyingDucted heat pump instead (heating + cooling in one system) | Installed cost$12,000 – $18,000 |
| What you're buyingDuctwork replacement, if the ducts are the real problem | Installed cost$3,000 – $8,000 |
If your quote came in far under the bottom of that range, something is missing — usually the permit, the venting, or a proper plenum transition. If it came in far over the top, ask what scope is driving it. Both answers should be written down.
Full detail on the equipment side lives on our furnace services page.
What actually moves the price
Efficiency tier
An 80% AFUE furnace sends 20 cents of every gas dollar up the flue. A 96% condensing furnace sends about four. In a mild climate with a short heating season, that gap takes a long time to pay back. In Thurston County it pays back faster than anywhere else we work, because the furnace runs more hours.
The catch is installation. A condensing furnace vents through PVC out a sidewall and produces acidic condensate that needs a drain. If your current furnace vents into a masonry chimney shared with a water heater, going high-efficiency may mean relining or re-venting that chimney for the water heater. That is a real line item, and it is why two bids on the same house can differ by $1,500 without either one being dishonest.
Sizing — and the 17°F number
This is the part Olympia homeowners get burned on. A contractor who sizes your replacement by reading the badge off the old furnace is copying somebody else's guess from 1994. Older Thurston County homes have been re-insulated, re-windowed and sometimes added onto since then. The load is almost never what it was.
An oversized furnace short-cycles: it blasts, satisfies the thermostat in six minutes, shuts off, and leaves the far bedrooms cold. An undersized furnace runs flat out on the three January mornings that actually hit design temperature. A Manual J load calculation — run against 17°F for Olympia, Lacey and Tumwater, not a national average — is the only way to get it right. Every Varsity estimate includes one at no extra cost.
Where the furnace lives
Thurston County housing stock is genuinely mixed, and the install location drives labor:
- Garage utility corner — the easy case. Room to work, easy venting, easy condensate drain. Lower end of the range.
- Interior closet — tight clearances, combustion air requirements, and sometimes a door or framing modification. Mid range.
- Crawlspace or low basement — common in older South Capitol and Bigelow-area homes. Awkward access adds hours.
- Attic air handler platform — more typical in newer Lacey and Hawks Prairie subdivisions. Add drain pan and safety switch work.
Ductwork condition
We will not put a new furnace on ducts that cannot carry its airflow and call it a win. Thurston County crawl spaces are damp. Flex duct that has sagged, torn or lost its insulation jacket robs you of the efficiency you just paid for. Most homes need nothing more than sealing and a plenum transition. Some need real repair, and when they do, we say so before you sign, not after.
Gas, electrical and code items
New high-efficiency equipment sometimes needs a larger gas line, a dedicated electrical circuit, or a new condensate pump. The mechanical permit is required in all three cities — Olympia, Lacey and Tumwater each issue their own, and Olympia's historic districts add review for exterior venting on certain properties. Varsity pulls the permit on every job. No exceptions.
How the three cities differ
They price the same, but they don't install the same.
Olympia has the oldest housing. South Capitol Victorians and Eastside bungalows often have converted-gravity duct systems, undersized returns and furnaces wedged into basements with low headroom. Expect the venting conversation to matter.
Lacey skews newer — 1980s through 2000s subdivisions with existing ducts in decent shape and garage or attic equipment. These are the clean, one-day installs.
Tumwater sits in between, with a mix of mid-century ramblers near the brewery and newer development on the hill. Older Tumwater ramblers are good candidates for a straight swap; the newer ones are good candidates for stepping up to a heat pump.
The honest comparison: furnace or heat pump
We install both, so we have no reason to push you either direction.
Replace the furnace with a furnace when: the furnace is the only failure, the ducts are sound, you already have AC or genuinely do not want it, and you need the lowest responsible number today. $4,000 to $8,000 does that.
Go to a heat pump when: the furnace is 15-plus years old, you want cooling for the smoke-and-heat weeks in July and August, or you are electrifying the house. A ducted heat pump at $12,000 to $18,000 replaces the furnace and the air conditioner. Against electric resistance heat, a heat pump cuts heating costs 30 to 50 percent. Against gas, the running-cost math depends on current local gas and electric rates — we walk through it in heat pump vs. gas furnace in Western Washington.
And if your furnace is young and healthy, a hybrid setup keeps it as backup heat and costs nothing extra to reuse.
What a good quote looks like
Before you sign anything in Olympia, Lacey or Tumwater, make sure the proposal names:
- Model number and AFUE rating, not just "high-efficiency furnace."
- The sizing basis — a load calculation, not the old unit's badge.
- Venting scope, including anything that happens to a shared chimney.
- Plenum, duct transition and any duct repair included.
- Permit and inspection, stated as included.
- Old equipment removal and disposal.
- Warranty terms in writing. Every Varsity install carries 10 years parts and 10 years labor.
If two bids look $2,000 apart, nine times out of ten the difference is on that list — not in the markup.
Get a real number for your house
Want a starting range before anyone visits? The instant estimate tool asks seven questions about your home and shows Good, Better and Best starting prices in about 60 seconds.
When you're ready for the exact number, request a free in-home estimate or call (253) 785-4622, Monday through Friday, 8 to 6. We measure the house, run the load calculation against Thurston County's 17°F design temperature, look at the ducts, and hand you written Good, Better and Best options. No manufactured urgency, no mystery pricing — just the math, from the people who answer the phone after the check clears.