"Will a heat pump actually save me money" is the question every homeowner asks before they ask anything else, and it deserves a real answer instead of a brochure number. The honest answer is: it depends what you're replacing, and by how much.
The math is completely different depending on what you have now
This is the part most online calculators skip, and it's the whole story.
If you're on electric resistance heat — baseboards, wall heaters, or an old electric furnace — a heat pump is close to a guaranteed win. Resistance heat converts electricity to heat at roughly 1-to-1. A heat pump moves existing heat instead of generating it, so it can deliver several units of heat for every unit of electricity it uses. That's why homes coming off resistance heat typically see a 30 to 50 percent drop in the heating portion of their bill.
If you're on gas, the trade isn't a straight discount. Your gas bill drops or goes away and your electric bill rises to cover it. Whether the total is lower depends on your electric rate, your gas rate, and how the new system is sized — which is why anyone who quotes you a savings number without asking for your actual bills is guessing.
What actually drives the number on your bill
Your electric rate
This is the single biggest variable and the one people skip. Rates vary by utility across our service area, and a heat pump's running cost tracks that rate directly. Pull up your last year of electric bills before anyone estimates your savings — without that, any number you hear is a placeholder.
What you're replacing
| Current system | Typical change after switching to a heat pump |
|---|---|
| Current systemElectric baseboard / wall heaters | Typical change after switching to a heat pumpHeating cost usually drops 30-50% |
| Current systemElectric furnace | Typical change after switching to a heat pumpHeating cost usually drops 25-45% |
| Current systemGas furnace | Typical change after switching to a heat pumpElectric bill rises, gas bill drops or disappears — net result depends on rates |
| Current systemPropane furnace | Typical change after switching to a heat pumpUsually a clear win; propane runs expensive per unit of heat here |
How well the house holds heat
A heat pump moving warm air into a leaky house is still paying to heat the outdoors. Single-pane windows, thin attic insulation, or ductwork running through an unconditioned crawlspace will eat into savings no matter how efficient the equipment is. If your bills stay high after a switch, insulation and duct sealing are usually the next place to look — not the heat pump.
A realistic example, not a promise
A Puget Sound home on electric baseboard heat spending roughly $180 a month through the coldest stretch of winter will typically see that drop into the $100–$130 range after switching to a properly sized heat pump — a meaningful but not magical change, and one that depends entirely on the home. We won't hand you a number until we've seen your actual bills and sized the system for your square footage, because a heat pump sized wrong can erase the savings a correctly sized one would deliver.
Where the PSE rebate fits in
Varsity is a certified PSE Trade Ally, and PSE offers up to $4,400 toward a qualifying heat pump when it replaces an existing electric or fossil-fuel system — the exact amount depends on what you're replacing and what gets installed. That rebate affects your upfront cost and payback period, not your monthly bill math above. Rebate programs change, so we confirm current eligibility and handle the paperwork rather than promising a figure before we've looked at your situation. If you're not a PSE customer, ask us directly — eligibility follows your utility, not your county, and we'll tell you straight if a program doesn't apply to your address.
How to get a real number instead of an estimate
- Pull your last 12 months of electric bills (and gas bills, if applicable).
- Note your current system type and its age.
- Have us size a system for your actual square footage and insulation — not a rule of thumb.
- Ask what rebates apply to your specific utility and equipment.
- Compare the combined monthly cost, not just one bill against another.
Every home's math is different, and the fastest way to see your real number is a free estimate where we look at your bills and your house before we say a word about savings. Prefer a ballpark first? Our instant estimate tool gives you a starting range in about 60 seconds. For the full picture on what a heat pump installation costs upfront in this market, we've broken down real 2026 pricing across Washington and what the PSE rebate program actually covers.